Thursday, November 04, 2004
Why Ohio Might Face A Recount, Anyway
Ohio Statute 3515.011: Recount when winning margin less than one-half per cent of total vote (Moritz Law): "If the number of votes cast in any statewide election for the declared winning nominee, candidate, question, or issue does not exceed the number of votes cast for the declared defeated nominee, candidate, question, or issue by a margin of one-fourth of one per cent or more of the total vote, the secretary of state shall order a recount which shall be conducted as provided in sections 3515.04 and 3515.05 of the Revised Code."
As of now, CNN provides the following breakdown of Presidential votes in Ohio (Election 2004/Ohio): Bush/Cheney - 2,796,147, Kerry/EDWARDS - 2,659,664, Badnarik - 14,331 and Peroutka - 11,614. Total Votes Cast - 5,481,756. Bush/Cheney is currently ahead of Kerry/EDWARDS by a total of 136,483 votes.
In the 2000 election, about 107,000 of the 123,518 provisional ballots cast were counted.
I'm going to run with 200,000 as the number of provisional ballots. Let's say 90% of the 200,000 provisionals are proven valid. That translates into 180,000 votes, and when added to the total already counted, that would produce a total of 5,681,756. A margin of less than 14,204 votes would mandate an automatic recount.
In order to reach that margin, 151,139 (85%) of the provisional ballots must favor the Kerry/EDWARDS ticket. This number is within the realm of reasonability since the majority of the provisional ballots are probably mostly newly registered voters, many of them African American.
I'm not giving up hope. Neither should you.